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The Hidden Troubles Of Textile And Garment Industry Show &Nbsp; Long Term Prospects Are Not Hindered.

2011/12/9 13:45:00 21

Hidden Troubles In Textile And Garment Industry Appear For A Long Time Without Hindering The Prospect Of Chaoyang.

Sales of clothing increased more in the first three quarters of this year.

performance

Since August, the negative impact of price increases on sales has begun to appear.

Against this background, we are looking for industries that are still increasing in subdivision category: from the statistics of shopping malls, the average sales volume of jackets and women's clothing is higher, while the average sales of T-shirts and trousers are negative. From the point of view of subdivision industry, the home textile and outdoor industries still have larger extension space and need to select companies with relatively less inventory pressure.

At the same time, we re examined the mass leisure and home textile industry, and made more detailed domestic and foreign brand clothing companies.

data

Contrast.

Key points of investment

Plate review: the scenery here is better.

In the 1-10 month of this year, the SW textile and clothing industry index fell 7.24%, which outperformed all A shares and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 3.15PCT and 0.97PCT; among them, the home textile plate trend was the strongest, or 21.21%.

At present, the valuation of the plate is 28 times in 2011, close to the top of the historical valuation range (20-30 times).

We believe that the main reasons for supporting the trend of the textile and garment sector are: (1) CPI has a certain ability to raise prices under high inflation; (2) the order will grow steadily; (3) the certainty of performance is high; (4) there is basically no risk of policy control, price fixing and so on.

To see only one spot,

Spin

The short-term worries of clothing industry are getting more and more obvious.

(1) the macro level: the fall of CPI may drag down the optional consumer goods, the negative effect of clothing price increases has already appeared, the rent and deduction point increase, and the difficulty of extension and expansion is increasing.

(2) industry level: in spring and summer 2012, ordering will be slightly lower than expected, price increases will inhibit sales volume effect, industry inventory pressure will increase, and franchisees' financial situation is tight, and enterprises' credit lines will increase.

Looking at the textile and garment industry

Long-term

No worries in the future.

(1) industry boom has declined, but high-end consumption is still strong.

According to the statistics of the shopping malls, the average sales volume of jackets and women's clothing is higher, while the average sales of T-shirts and trousers are negative.

(2) comparison of the development of sub sectors: A.

Volkswagen casual wear and women's clothing market has the largest market capacity, but the market concentration is still low, and there is no sign of integration yet; B.

The market concentration of formal dress, women's shoes and outdoor industry is relatively high, leading enterprises have obvious advantages; C.

Business casual wear enterprises and sportswear start to integrate, but business casual wear market concentration is still low.

(3) comparison of apparel brand management data in different industries at home and abroad.

4.2012 years investment strategy of textile and garment industry.

(1) pay attention to the high growth subdivision industry:

Home textiles

Industry (fuanna), outdoor industry (Pathfinder); (2) time for space, holding brand clothing and home textiles, looking for fine management capabilities of enterprises, to get about 30% of the year's performance growth brought about by the stock returns: good news birds, nine herdmen, seven wolves; (3) scarce resources: Bank of China's cashmere industry.

Risk warning.

(1) the risk of raw material price fluctuation; (2) the high risk of channel expansion; (3) the risk of rising labor costs; (4) the risk of commercial real estate rents rising.