Textile Enterprises Continue To Increase Inventories, Autumn Orders Are Also Hard To Save, Textile Pressure Mountain Big!

In June 2019, China's cotton textile prosperity index was 46.43, down 0.39 compared with May. In the early June, the market continued to slump, raw materials and product prices continued to decline. The stock of textile enterprises continued to increase, and the volume of cotton reserves decreased significantly, which was in sharp contrast to the high turnover rate in May. In June 18th, the heads of state of China and the United States exchanged telephone calls to confirm the G20 summit meeting and to communicate on Sino US trade issues. The market responded swiftly, raw material prices rebounded, and downstream orders started in autumn. In the early July, after the good news of the resumption of Sino US trade, the downstream was briefly recovered. But because of the traditional textile low season in July and the uncertainty of Sino US trade situation, the market wait-and-see sentiment is still strong. China's cotton textile prosperity index is expected to remain stable or slightly lower in July.

　　 Raw material purchase price index

In June, the purchasing price index of raw materials was 46.27, down 1.03 compared with May. In the first ten days of June, the international cotton price declined under the influence of crude oil and other commodities and poor sales of cotton and cotton. The spot price of domestic cotton continued to decline in May, and the futures of Zheng cotton futures fluctuated greatly. Viscose staple fiber sales are weak, downstream procurement cautious, prices continue to decline, polyester staple fiber is affected by the decline in crude oil, cargo declines significantly, prices fell slightly. In late June, raw material prices rebounded, thanks to the good news of Sino US trade. In June, the CotlookA index averaged 77.65 cents / pound, down 2.49 cents / pound, the average spot price of domestic 3128B grade cotton was 13951 yuan / ton, a decrease of 819 yuan / ton, the mainstream viscose fiber average price was 11300 yuan / ton, the chain ratio decreased 650 yuan / ton; 1.4D direct spinning polyester short average price was 7550 yuan / ton, a decrease of 562 yuan / ton. In the early July, the price of raw materials continued to rise at the end of June, and the purchasing price index of raw materials in July was expected to rise steadily.

　　 Raw material inventory index

In June, the stock index of raw materials was 46.4, down 0.94 compared with May. Tracking enterprise data shows that in June, raw material inventories fell by 5.19%. Among them, the raw cotton inventory decreased by 4.49%, the import cotton inventory decreased by 9.57%, and the non cotton fiber inventory decreased by 7.36%. The main reasons are as follows: first, the downturn in the market leads to the wait-and-see sentiment in the industrial chain; the slowdown in the procurement of textile enterprises and the decline in raw material prices form a "vicious circle"; two, the domestic cotton prices fall more than the foreign cotton prices, and the difference between the inside and outside cotton prices is small, and the spinning enterprises choose the right time to buy cotton; three, some enterprises are Underworking or reduced production, and the consumption of raw materials is reduced, and the textile enterprises have lowered the level of raw materials inventory. In July, the price of raw materials rebounded, especially the price of chemical fiber staple increased significantly, and the turnover rate of reserve cotton also increased compared with June. It is estimated that the probability of raw material inventory index will increase in June.

　　 Production index

In June, the production index was 45.82, down 0.58 compared with May. Recently, China Cotton Association went to Shandong, Zhejiang, Hunan, Hubei, Fujian and other places to conduct research. Through investigation, it was learned that since May, textile enterprises have not been able to operate well, and the number of orders has been reduced. In terms of products, the production of medium and low counts pure cotton products is relatively good, and the production rate of high yarn spinning enterprises has declined. Tracking enterprise data shows that yarn production decreased by 2.62% in June, and cloth production decreased by 7.35%. Among them, the production of chemical fiber yarn and cotton blended fabric decreased more obviously. Visiting enterprises said that in the early July, downstream enquiries and orders increased slightly, but there was no obvious improvement in the market. Therefore, the increase in production index was not very likely.

　　 Product sales index

In June, the product sales index was 45.04, down 0.54 compared with May. Through investigation and study, in June, yarn speed was better than that of weaving, and product inventory remained basically in 1~2 months. On the whole, the enterprises selling the domestic market are better than the export enterprises, and the home textile market in Zhejiang and Jiangsu is relatively good at present. According to the products, the sales of conventional products and differentiated products are relatively good, and the pure cotton high count yarns are generally transported. In June, the average price of 32 Pure Cotton Combed Yarns was 21185 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1228 yuan / ton, and the average price of pure cotton grey fabric (32*32 130*70 2/1 47 "twill") was 5.29 yuan / meter, and the chain ratio decreased by 0.14 yuan / meter. Tracking enterprise data shows that yarn sales increased by 2.33% in June, and sales volume decreased by 2.68%. In the near future, the macroeconomic benefits have led to the rise in cotton prices. A new round of orders has started to help textile enterprises digest their stocks. However, the price transmission is lagging behind. Therefore, the driving force behind the rising prices of products is insufficient, and the product sales index is expected to continue to decline in July.

　　 Product inventory index

In June, the product inventory index was 45, down 0.14 compared with May. Affected by the continued downturn in the market, the pressure on textile products inventory is further increased. According to China Cotton Association Research and understanding, the average stock of spinning enterprises is more than 1 months, and the price of gauze is short of rising support, and the capital turnover pressure of enterprises is increasing. This is also part of the reason why textile enterprises stop production and limit production. Tracking enterprise data shows that yarn inventory increased by 2.72% in June, and cloth inventory increased by 1.38%. Among them, pure cotton yarn inventory increased by 6.21%, and cotton fabric inventory increased by 1.44%. At the end of June, although there was a turning point in the market and there were signs of improvement, overall, it was still difficult to change the downturn, and the pressure on enterprise inventory remained large.

　　 Business index

In June, the business index was 46.45, down 0.14 compared with May. At the end of June, at the G20 summit held in Osaka, Japan, the leaders of China and the United States met to confirm that the subsequent tariff was temporarily levied and market confidence was effectively boosted. Before that, there was panic in the market, worried that the United States would impose tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars. Investigation and understanding, the first half of the market downturn, the order is scarce, part of the region's workers are mostly mobile population. After the shutdown, recruitment is very difficult, so enterprises have to go through the price drop to maintain business, some enterprises are in a state of loss. At present, although Sino US consultations are being carried out in an orderly manner, there are still many uncertainties.

　　 Description: China's cotton textile industry boom index is collected from more than 200 cotton spinning enterprises in the whole country. Through the weighted calculation of several main indicators, when the index is higher than 50, it indicates that the cotton textile industry is in a good condition, and below 50 indicates that the economic level is not good enough.