Trump's Rally Has Come As A "Meteorite" That Hits The US Market.

Morgan Management Samantha global market strategist Samantha Azzarello said on Tuesday (March 7th) that the next major threat facing the so-called "Trump rally" is brewing in the JPMorgan Asset.

Although Azzarello believes that the US market has already looked too optimistic, she believes that the upcoming French presidential election will be the next "meteorite" that will impact the stock market.

Azzarello said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday: "Europe's political risk is great, though it may not hurt European stock markets because fundamentals look good.

But there is no doubt that it has the ability to create volatility or affect the market in the short term. "

The first round of voting for the French presidential election is scheduled for April 23rd. Investors are eyeing the Marine Le Pen, a candidate on the far right national front line. She did better in the polls. Bon.

Market participants worry that if Bon wins the election, he may hold a referendum on Euro retreat, which may cause severe turbulence in the market.

Azzarello believes that the final outcome of the French presidential election (the second round of voting will take place in May) may also have an impact on the FED.

Analysts have always predicted that

It may raise interest rates two times to four times this year.

Azzarello believes that any event that may cause panic in the stock market, such as the French presidential election, will cause the fed to raise interest rates only two times.

She said: "the Fed is cautious, and they prefer to keep their hands on the ground than fast action. Therefore, I think it is very important for you to remember this."

In addition, the political uncertainty in Washington is also quite high, which may mean that the US stock market has gone too far.

Azzarello believes that to a certain extent, the market performance is "narrow minded".

A large increase in the stock market is related to reflation and the expected acceleration of the global economy. Investors are longing for the good news from the US government, but they may be disappointed.

"Some good news from Washington may be lagging behind," she said.

It may not be until 2018.

But the market had already digested it in 2017.

On Wednesday, Dow continued to decline for the third consecutive trading day, failing to extend its brilliant performance.

At 20:45 on Thursday, Beijing time, the European Central Bank will announce the March interest rate resolution. Barclays Capital said it expected that the risks of the policy outlook would be more balanced, and that it would still promise a substantial easing, thus forcing the euro to bear pressure.

The specific points are as follows.

The ECB's January monetary policy meeting notes that although the overall inflation rate in the euro area continues to rise, the members of the monetary policy committee admit that the gradual weakening of stimulus measures may jeopardize inflation and require stable stimulus measures.

The main reason is that the euro area still has a lot of excess capacity to drag down inflation. Most of the output gap is expected to imply that the current output gap is still below the potential level of about 2%.

Updated

In anticipation, the ECB expects to increase the inflation growth rate in 2017 by at least 0.5%, from 1.3% to 1.8%, and maintain the expected growth rate of inflation in 2018 and 2019 unchanged at 1.5% and 1.7% respectively.

The bank said Europe's political risk will also keep the ECB cautious, and the euro will continue to fall next year.

Next Wednesday (March 15th), Holland will have election day as the first major political risk event in the euro area.

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