PTA Tight Supply Is In The State Of De Stocking.

The overall atmosphere of commodities is good, the crude oil market is going well, the supply and demand is in the state of inventory and the pursuit of speculative capital. PTA is expected to remain strong in the short term. However, in view of the underlying situation and the downstream market situation, PTA's continued momentum is not enough. It should not be overly optimistic about the future market, and should be cautious in catching up.

Operation, before the disappearance of the whole commodity market, it is recommended to wait for a short period of time, or to buy short pactions in Gaoping and light storehouses.

Confirm disappear.

Crude oil is expected to be strong, naphtha cracking spreads are relatively low, it is difficult to continue to shrink, the supply of PX is tight in the two quarter, and the supporting role of upstream cost side is strong.

From the perspective of supply and demand of PTA, May will still be in the state of going out of stock, and the supply is tight.

But with the reboot of the maintenance unit and the arrival of the end of the polyester plant and the end of the peak season, the tight supply will be eased, and the 6 month will return.

The cumulative situation is basically weakening.

Later need to pay close attention to device maintenance and restart, especially whether Yisheng Dalian 220 million tons of maintenance and whether the new equipment, Xiang Lu device restart, which has a greater impact on the supply side.

From inventory, with the approaching of the end of the peak season,

The operating rate will probably fall in the middle of 5 months, and the stock probability of pet manufacturers will increase. The restart of PX and PTA maintenance devices will increase. In late May, PTA inventory will start to rise.

From warehouse receipts, warehouse receipts before deliveries are expected to reach a record high level of 15 years over the same period, because the warehouse receipts can not be moved to the January contract, September contracts are facing greater pressure on warehouse receipts.

From the point of view of industrial profits, PTA will have huge profit in processing, which will attract industrial funds to lock in processing profits, and may delay the maintenance or restart of the equipment. Downstream polyester profits continue to decline, POY loss will expand, DTY profits will be continuously compressed, the downstream will not be enough to catch up with raw materials, and the scope of printing and dyeing remediation has begun to expand in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, and the weakening of weaving orders will continue to weaken.

And the lack of downstream cooperation, PTA speculation will also be a certain degree of inhibition.

In April, PTA futures continued to oscillate upward trend. On the microscopic basis, HP Petrochemical's newly commissioned 2 million 200 thousand ton capacity plant has been unable to restart after parking in March 25th. In addition, in March, 31 tons of daily maintenance of Ningbo's Taiwan chemical industry's 1 million 200 thousand ton capacity production unit had not been restarted. In April, PTA production and supply contracted, while the downstream polyester was in the seasonal peak season, and the load level was maintained at 8. The raw material inventory of polyester factories was low, and the rigid demand for PTA was strong. PTA was in a state of de stocking, and the cost support from upstream PX centralized maintenance was also strong.

Under the influence of inflation expectations, the whole commodity market has gone up strongly, and speculative capital has also boosted the price.