China'S Stock Market Has Been In A Long Row For A Long Time.

Is it a slow cow? Actually, it is a hard nut to crack. In fact, it is a difficult concept to identify, and if the market is to reach a consensus, the early entry of the market will mean that you have lower share holding costs, which means that you will gain more profits, and that means you will gain more profits, so that you will be rushing to enter the market and buy stocks ahead of time. Besides, China's institutions have been scattered and retail has been flocking. What you are doing is the trend market, which will appear in a short period of time. It is very optimistic that it will become a mad cow. In the first half of 15 years, the trend is so. Who is the slow cow? Who can tell me clearly how the stock market works?

In the hope of gaining more profits, the result is obvious to all. The reform of cattle and cattle has become a leveraged cow mad cow, thus turning into a stock market crash at the end of June.

So this is something that is not easy to achieve.

Experts always say that the market has its own operation rules. So, is the market running fast and slow? Is the market running rhythm controlled by several experts? It's a bit unthinkable!

At the beginning of the new year, although the mainstream market is optimistic about the stock market, it is believed that the reform of cattle is the main theme. However, investors believe that China's stock market is facing many uncertain factors. They have sold their holdings, and on the first day of the new year, they hit the fusing mechanism twice and suspended trading. After that, they still slumped and then plunged. Some stocks fell more than 40%, and fell more than 30%.

On the theory of being a real flicker!

I don't know if there is any guilt in singing the ox and the cow. Do you feel sorry for tens of thousands of investors? Do the people who sing the stock market boom feel that they have fooled thousands of ordinary people?

　　15年上证综指收报 3539.18点，深圳成指收报12664.89点，中小板收报8393.83点，创业板收报2714.05点，笔者不知道慢牛论者是指股市全年所有交易日维持一种慢涨慢跌走势，到年底股指小幅上涨，就像美国三大股指一样，很少有超过1%的涨跌幅，但全年三大股指上涨20%上下，那么中国股市开年暴跌，慢牛论已经全部失去存在基础，慢牛论已经不攻自破;还是不管过程如何激烈，暴涨暴跌不断上演，让投资者无所适从，吓破肝胆都没关系，全年维持一种小幅上涨就是慢牛，也就是只看结果不看过程，这有待观察;最后一个问题就是上涨多少算慢牛，是指单纯以上证综指而论，还是指全部指数都要小幅上扬，上扬幅度算多少才算慢牛，这都没有说清楚，只是一句含混不清的慢牛，让人觉得难以理解难以把握，到时候也难以评判，专家们预言是不是正确。

At present, the yield of financial products is about 5%, the yield of ten year bonds is about 3%, and the actual value is less than 3%, just for the sake of calculation convenience. If we consider that the stock market is a risky asset, there should be a risk premium, so all the index increase of LF should be above 10% or less than 20%, because the higher than 20% increase is the intermediate level or above rebound.

When we do not consider the increase of performance, what is the corresponding price earnings ratio? Today, the Shanghai composite index is 13.14 times the price earnings ratio, the Shenzhen index is 42.27 times, the medium and small board is 53.06 times, the growth enterprise market is 75.65 times, and the corresponding growth rate will be more than 18.13, the Shenzhen composite index is 61.71 times, the medium and small board is 77.57 times, the gem is 114.61 times, the price earnings ratio is obviously higher, which is several times higher than the US price earnings ratio, and the Shanghai composite index is lower than the US Dow price earnings ratio.

Very few reasons) although some people think that we should not take the price earnings ratio of the US stock market as a matter of fact, but the author thinks that only by comparison can we see whether the Chinese stock market is overestimating whether there is a bubble or not. Besides, those people are always keen on the US registration system, and are keen on the uncontrolled new shares in the US. Can we only compare the US price earnings ratio with the introduction of the US registration system and see if there is any bubble in our stock market?

According to the rise of 15%, by the end of 16, the Shanghai composite index should be 4070.01 points, the Shenzhen index 14564.62 points, the small and medium board 9652.90 points, the gem 3121.16 points.

I think this point is still a little high, mainly gem is higher, today's Shanghai Composite Index 2949.6 points, Shenzhen index 9978.82 points, the gem index points to 2059.78 points, small and medium-sized board 6602.31 points, from today's corresponding to the Shanghai Composite Index to rise 1120.41 points or 37.99%, Shenzhen index rose 4585.8 points or 45.95%, the gem rose 1061.38 or 51.53%, small plates 3050.59 points or 3050.59, this increase is a big bull market, far beyond the intermediate rebound, can such a strong rebound be achieved?