PTA Futures Continue To Receive A Continuous Change In Volume, Oscillating Downward Trend

With the accelerated expansion of PX capacity in 2014, the supply bottleneck of PX relative to PTA has been broken. In the last two years, polyester demand and capacity expansion are at a low speed stage.

The upstream and downstream industry chain of the whole PTA is in the supply and demand structure of the bottle type. This industry chain structure makes the cost pmission of PTA more smoothly in the process of crude oil price fluctuation.

In December last year, China's PX import volume reached a record high of 1 million 178 thousand tons. Domestic PX social inventories were at a high level. In January 30th, Asian PX sellers concession and concessions, and buyers and sellers successfully finalized the ACP negotiations in February at the level of $710 / ton, and at that price, the production of PX was 36 dollars / ton loss.

This shows that the supply and demand environment of the PX market in February is relatively loose.

But when oil prices continue to rise, half of the PX factory's sales in February will be settled at $710 / ton, and the loss will be further enlarged.

In order to make up for the loss of contract goods, PX sellers substantially increased PX shipments. As of February 3rd, the price of PX has been raised to $848 / tonne CFR, China's dynamic production profit is $34 / ton, and the production cost of PTA has increased by 274 yuan / ton compared with the end of January.

In the later stage, although the domestic PX social inventory is at a high level, the seller will still scrambled up PX cargo to make up for the loss of contract goods.

The strong pattern will continue.

The end of January

Social inventory is at a low level of 950 thousand tons.

In February, the PTA factory load increased to 77%. Compared with the start-up load of downstream polyester 75%, PTA supply capacity increased, and with the Spring Festival approaching, there are still many sets.

Ready to stop production and maintenance, PTA inventory will enter the accumulation stage.

It should be noted that Yisheng Ningbo 2 million 200 thousand tons and Xiang Lu 4 million 500 thousand tons of equipment in February or have plans to stop or reduce load, and later need to be further tracked.

At present, the dynamic production cost of PTA has increased to 4618 yuan / ton. In February 4th, Yisheng main port offered a 200 yuan / ton increase to 4700 yuan / ton.

Late PTA spot prices will continue to follow cost changes.

The forward structure of the crude oil market makes the PTA futures rise in the long term, and the current spreads remain above 200 yuan / ton.

This led to continuous inflow of warehouse receipts in futures deliveries.

As of February 3rd, the PTA futures delivery warehouse had 18232 warehouse receipts, 2304 effective forecasts, and a cumulative increase of 10333 compared with mid January.

This creates some pressure on the futures market.

Overall, the supply and demand structure of the PTA industry chain makes the cost pmission more smoothly. The strong price of crude oil makes the PTA futures go up sharply. Once the crude oil engine is "flameout", the huge increase in the PTA market in the short term will be quickly recalled when the cost drag and the loose supply and demand expectations are suppressed.