Gui Haoming: Return To Concussion Slowly Rising Normal

All say market It is the best teacher, and so is this time. Shanghai and Hong Kong through the first day of opening, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the Hongkong stock market are high and low, the early sought after Hong Kong and Shanghai through the benefit of shares generally fell. Yesterday, the market continued to continue this trend. The day before yesterday, Hong Kong and Hong Kong, which were also very sought after, had been clearly ignored. In Shanghai and Hong Kong through the theme of the hot topic, the seriously injured gem, at this time, has become more and more vibrant, and has become one of the few bright spots in the market. Such a market structure is indeed a bit unexpected, but in fact it is not difficult to understand at all.

Shanghai and Hong Kong have realized the interconnection of two markets in Shanghai and Hongkong. First of all, this is a technological breakthrough. In a deeper level, it is expanding the opening of the domestic capital market and opening up to the outside world. From a technical point of view, the impact of this change is limited, because QFII and QDII have already existed before, and the stock market in Shanghai and Hong Kong is not completely isolated.

So, count on Shanghai-Hongkong Stock Connect How much money will be brought to us at the same time and change the investment philosophy of the domestic market and go out of the bull market is a bit too optimistic. The strategic significance of Shanghai and Hong Kong is huge, but it needs time to reflect slowly. It is impossible to change the market structure overnight.

Since the beginning of this year, the clue of market development is still clearer, and the overall trend is upward. But the space is limited, and it is difficult to break through the big box formed in a period of time. This is relative to the relative weakness of the real economy and the directional easing of macro policies. Although the market has no risk interest rate down, the capital side has also improved, but after all, it is still in a relatively elementary stage. Fundamentally speaking, it does not support the stock market going out of the bull market, nor does it exist for the blue chips to surge.

Of course, the prospect of reform dividends is still there. The capital market continues to be loose and the trend of long-term interest rates is still expected downward. The stock market still has the opportunity to step out of the market stronger than last year and form a certain rebound. At the beginning of this year, some institutions predicted that the stock market could rebound by 20%, or about 400 points. Now it seems reasonable.

But can we further expand the outcome on this basis? We need to find new ones. Driving factors Now. Shanghai and Hong Kong through the implementation of this time, obviously for the stock market is a positive. But the problem is that the good news was announced 7 months ago, and after several rounds of speculation, the short-term stimulus to the market has been very limited. Under such circumstances, it is necessary to further increase its hype so that it can shoulder the responsibilities far beyond its ability, leading to the "light and death" of the market after the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, amplifying the intensity of market turbulence.

The next market should return to normal, that is, continue to rise in the concussion. Of course, under the current circumstances, the market needs to sort out the disorder of stock price structure caused by abnormal fluctuations in the early stage, and further consolidate the foundation. As far as the market is concerned, it is appropriate to withdraw the index below 2450 points. In this way, we can finish the arrangement and make further progress in December.