Customs General Administration: The Actual Utilization Of Foreign Capital In Manufacturing Industry Has Declined For 15 Consecutive Months.

According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 19 trillion and 400 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports of 10 trillion and 400 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6%, imports 9 trillion yuan, down 0.1%.

The trade surplus was 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan, an expansion of 35.3%.

In dollar terms, imports and exports, exports and imports in the first three quarters increased by 3.3%, 5.1% and 1.3%, respectively.

Zheng Yuesheng said that in the first three quarters of this year, foreign trade has been improving by quarter. This good trend is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. Especially in terms of exports, China's foreign trade export index indicates that the pressure of foreign trade exports will be further reduced in the next two or three months.

Of course, when we analyze the situation faced by China's foreign trade, we should not only see the positive side, but also pay attention to some negative effects on the foreign trade situation.

In this regard, it is suggested that we should pay attention to three main factors:

First, the international competitiveness of China's export products has been weakened.

The manufacturing sector is shifting to Southeast Asia and other neighboring countries, and the share of China's labor-intensive products in major markets such as Europe, America and Japan continues to decline.

In recent years, with the continuous rise of minimum wage standards in various parts of China, the comprehensive operating costs of labor, financing, land and other enterprises continue to rise, and the constraints of resources and environment are constantly increasing.

The performance is somewhat weakened.

According to our monthly tracking survey of 3000 enterprises, about 65% of the enterprises every month reflect the continuous increase in the total cost of production.

On the other hand, the traditional labor-intensive manufacturing industry in China's export advantage is also gradually shifting to Southeast Asian countries, and the share of China's related products in the international market is also declining.

Among them, since 2001, China's clothing, textiles and other seven types of labor-intensive products in Europe and the United States, Japan's developed economies, the share of the market has continued to decline.

In the first half of this year, China's textile, clothing and other seven types of labor-intensive products accounted for 0.1, 0.4 and 2.8 percentage points, respectively. The share of Vietnam's similar products in Europe and the United States rose by 0.2, 0.7 and 1.1 percentage points in the first half of this year. This is the first factor that needs to be focused.

Two is along with some

The sharp decline in investment in China's manufacturing industry has led to some medium-term constraints on exports.

In recent years, some developed countries in order to boost their domestic economy and expand employment, speed up the reflux of some manufacturing industries to the mainland, and correspondingly invest in the manufacturing industry of related industries in China.

In the first 8 months of this year, the actual utilization of foreign capital in China's manufacturing industry dropped by about 15.7%, of which 7 and August fell by 17.8% and 29.1% respectively, which is the 15 consecutive month decline.

Nearly half of China's exports are created by foreign investment enterprises. The decline in the actual utilization of foreign capital in China's manufacturing industry will form a medium-term constraint on the export of our country.

Three, commodity prices continue to fall, lowering imports accordingly.

Since the beginning of the three quarter of this year, the import prices of major energy and resources products such as iron ore, crude oil, copper, soybeans and so on have dropped significantly.

In the first three quarters of this year, China's overall import price level dropped by 2.6% compared with the same period last year, and the monthly import price has dropped for the 31 consecutive month.

The decline in the average price of imports of commodities will help improve our terms of trade. We can buy more products with the same foreign exchange.

But at the same time, the import of the same goods, because of the fall in prices, to a certain extent, has slowed down the growth of import value of the current period.

In addition, at the end of September,

The latest expected figures for Global trade growth this year have just been lowered.

The world trade organization expects global trade growth to be about 3.1% in 2014, which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the 4.7% forecast in April.

The risks of geopolitics and big power relations may also affect the further trend of China's foreign trade.

In any case, we expect that the situation of China's foreign trade and imports will continue to improve in the fourth quarter of this year.