Economic Growth Is Expected To Become The Main Reason For The Strengthening Of RMB.

"Yesterday, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate increased significantly. There were two main factors contributing to it. First, the increase in foreign trade surplus resulted in an increase in demand for foreign exchange settlement. The two is that the market is more optimistic about China's economic growth in the context of the expected increase in foreign trade surplus." Chen Hufei, senior macroeconomic analyst at the financial research center of Bank of Communications (601328, stock bar), said yesterday in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter.

According to the state foreign exchange According to the latest data of the administration, in June 9th, the people's Bank of China authorized the China foreign exchange trading center to announce that the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was RMB 1 yuan to RMB 6.1485 yuan, up 138 basis points from the previous trading day, the largest increase in nearly 18 months. In January 14th this year, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar began to decline after reaching the historical peak of 6.0930, and fell to 6.1710 trough in June 3rd. The RMB exchange rate has depreciated to 780 basis points. The reversal of the renminbi's trend in June 9th triggered strong concern in the market.

Chen Hufei said that at present, China's foreign trade surplus has been very large, reaching the highest value in the past five years, and the huge foreign trade surplus has led to the increase in foreign exchange holdings, making the RMB exchange rate rise. In addition, China's current economic growth expectations have changed. Under the established policy of steady growth, restructuring and promoting reform, the proportion of investment in "three carriages" has been declining, and the proportion of consumption has been flat, while exports have increased, forming the expectation of overall economic growth.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, China in May Total value of imports and exports It was $355 billion 20 million, up 3% from the same period (the same below). Among them, exports amounted to US $195 billion 470 million, an increase of 7%; imports were US $159 billion 550 million, a decrease of 1.6%; the trade surplus was US $35 billion 920 million and the expansion rate reached 74.9%. According to the latest data from the safe, as of April this year, the scale of the state's foreign exchange reserves has reached 3 trillion and 948 billion 97 million US dollars.

Some analysts believe that the rebound in export growth in May was mainly due to the elimination of high base effect on exports in China's Hongkong region, the warming of peripheral demand and the continued depreciation of the renminbi. The decline in import growth was mainly due to inadequate domestic demand, the fall in import prices of commodities, and the shock of import trade financing arbitrage.

Liu Ligang, chief economist of Australia's new China Greater China region and Zhou Hao, a Chinese economist, believe that the huge surplus means that the pressure of RMB appreciation will further increase in the future. In addition, the European Central Bank will launch a new round of quantitative easing policy. This will also enable China to record strong capital inflows in the next few quarters.

"At present RMB The main focus is on the US dollar basket, and the euro has little impact on the renminbi. Chen Hufei said that the euro's "rise or fall" is a comprehensive result of Germany's economic stability and the government's policy of preventing capital flight, so the trend of the euro is still unclear.

Some analysts pointed out that guiding the strengthening of the renminbi may indicate that regulators are ready to end the decline in the current round of the renminbi. At the beginning of this year, the central bank unexpectedly guided the depreciation of the renminbi to curb speculative trading in the appreciation of the renminbi.