The Fiscal Led Expansive Policy Will Stir Up The Main Beam.

The central economic work conference closed on Wednesday. Maintaining steady and rapid economic development is the first task of next year's economic work.

In order to restore the economy to the downstream channel, officials have decided to strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy.

And the fiscal led expansion policy will be the backbone of this process.

Positive fiscal means the expansion of the size of the national debt and the deficit.

It has been reported that a budget of two 00 and nine years with a deficit of two hundred and eighty billion yuan has been submitted to the State Council.

The deficit is one hundred billion yuan more than this year's budget.

According to official sources, two or 00 or nine years of official or hundreds of billions of dollars in long-term treasury bonds are more than thirty billion yuan this year.

Before the central bank has cut interest rates several times and lowered the deposit reserve ratio, in the view of analysts, the cost of issuing huge amounts of treasury bonds has been greatly reduced.

However, Jia Kang, director of the Fiscal Science Research Institute of the Ministry of finance, believes that even if the scale of long-term government bonds and deficit increases significantly next year, China will still have some room for security in this regard.

This expert revealed that the vast majority of these deficits were not invested in projects, but invested in many funds, such as the central budget stabilization fund, social security fund and so on.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of industrial and Commercial Bank of China, said that the deficit of two hundred and eighty billion yuan is less than one percent of that of GDP, and the horizontal line is far from the international safety line of three percent. From a vertical perspective, China's deficit reached two point six percent of GDP during the economic downturn from 1997 to two 00 three years.

Whether the positive fiscal policy can maintain the "bottom line" of eight percent growth, Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of galaxy securities, said in an interview with our correspondent that the key is to see the implementation of the investment performance.

"Good steel should be used on the knife edge". Zuo Xiaolei thinks that pulling the economy should do more homework on investment.

We should use investment to stimulate reproduction and Reinvestment so as to form a virtuous circle so as to balance short-term economic growth and balance long-term sustainable development.

She also said that to ensure economic growth, we should not rely on government investment, but also stimulate private investment. "Last year, the tax revenue reached a record high of five trillion yuan, while the total social investment amounted to thirteen yuan and seven trillion yuan."

In the three carriages of export, investment and consumption, Zuo Xiaolei believes that the biggest regulatory space should be placed on consumption, and the emphasis should be placed on rural consumption.

"Investment has been growing at a high speed, and the contribution rate to GDP has been very high. Only consumption is growing steadily."

The export of foreign trade has greatly reduced its contribution to the economy.

The expert said that next year could not expect exports to make significant contributions to GDP as usual. Therefore, domestic demand should be used to make up for this gap.

Many people think that China's rural consumption is very difficult to start. For this reason, Zuo Xiaolei believes that there is a misunderstanding in this area.

She pointed out that in fact, the marginal consumption of farmers is very high. As long as the income of farmers is raised, the proportion of their income increase may be the proportion of consumption growth, and also the ratio of stimulating economic growth.

"Therefore, we must raise farmers' incomes and raise farmers' wealth through measures such as raising grain prices substantially."

Yang Jing: editor in charge