Financial Crisis Penetrated And Released Dangerous Signal Operators Three Big Tests
Brief content: the global financial crisis is becoming more and more serious, which threatens the real economy. Countries reduce the financial crisis by cutting interest rates, reducing taxes and injections of capital into the financial market.
The grim macroeconomic situation will trigger a chain reaction of related industries, and the change of telecommunications market demand will have a profound impact on the telecommunications industry.
The global financial crisis is becoming more and more serious, which poses a threat to the real economy. Countries reduce the impact of the financial crisis by cutting interest rates, reducing taxes and injections of capital into the financial markets.
As a pillar industry of the national economy, the telecommunications industry can not be in a "detached" position.
Although the negative impact of the financial crisis has not yet appeared in the China Telecom industry, we should fully understand and prepare for the development risks that may be faced.
"We are concerned about the impact of the global financial turmoil on China's communications industry."
The Ministry of industry and Commerce recently held the first National Symposium on communications management after its establishment. According to the relevant responsible person, the slowdown of the national economic growth will have an impact on the development of the industry.
We should actively follow up the research and put forward countermeasures in time.
Telecom operators as the leader of the industry, how to deal with this crisis has become the focus of attention of all parties.
Crisis penetrates and releases dangerous signals. Due to the deepening of global economic integration, the financial crisis has worsened the external demand market environment, and some industries and small and medium-sized enterprises are facing difficulties in production and operation.
This undoubtedly increases the pressure on the operation cost of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the budget of information technology may be reduced.
According to the Ministry of industry and information technology report, in 1-8 months, the loss of Industrial Enterprises above designated size was 18.3%, an increase of 2 percentage points over the same period, and the losses in the power, textile and nonferrous industries were serious.
Some small and medium-sized enterprises in the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and the western region stop production and half stop production.
A data released by the NDRC showed that in the first half of this year, more than 6.7 SMEs in China collapsed.
Obviously, small and medium-sized enterprises began to encounter "cold winter".
According to the news of China News Agency, at present, a number of export processing enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and the coastal areas of China have closed down, and many large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises have also tightened the pace of expansion rapidly, resulting in a large number of migrant workers being cut off or forced to leave indefinitely.
In Guangdong, many migrant workers have to return home early for the Spring Festival or find another way out.
As a result, these people will reduce their spending on communication consumption, thereby indirectly affecting the telecommunications industry.
From the perspective of the telecommunications industry, the fundamentals of development are good.
However, compared with the year-on-year growth rate of Telecom monthly cumulative income since 2008, we can see that the growth rate of Telecom Revenue has slowed down since March.
The forecast of the development potential of China Telecom in 2008 to 2011, issued by the information and Research Institute of the Telecommunications Research Institute of the Ministry of industry and telecommunications, said that the turning point of industrial development may come in 2009, and the telecommunications industry will be pformed from the national economy into a backward one.
From the three quarterly report disclosed by operators, the performance is generally lower than expected.
Goldman Sachs reported that China Mobile's net profit in the third quarter increased by 26% over the same period last year, and its growth rate has slowed considerably, down from 37% in the first quarter and 51% in the two quarter.
Dragged down by net profit in the three quarter, China Unicom's net profit increased 28.46% in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year, slowing down by 97.6% compared with the first half of this year.
The severe macroeconomic situation will trigger a chain reaction of related industries, and the change of telecommunications market demand will have a profound impact on the telecommunications industry.
In the short term, the financial turmoil that swept the world will not adversely affect China's operators, because of the three challenges.
However, in the long run, operators can not remain single.
In front of operators, it will be user consumption expenditure tightening, potential financing difficulties and investment cost pressures.
Luo Yizhi, partner of the global telecommunications center, believes that "macroeconomic data are closely related to the income of the telecommunications industry. The objective factors such as the enterprise and consumer confidence index directly affect the customer's purchase and consumption behavior of telecommunications products."
At present, the financial crisis has brought about the tightening of consumer spending, especially in the financial and real estate industry, which has been seriously hit by the financial crisis, and its communications expenditure has begun to decrease.
On the other hand, the economic downturn will have a certain impact on mass Telecom consumption.
For example, the wealth of ordinary people shrinks, and operators' voice, mobile Internet, MMS, CRBT and other businesses will be affected.
In terms of capital expenditure, the demand for low input and high output of operators is higher.
After restructuring, the three operators announced the 3G network investment plan.
It is a common choice for operators to quickly deploy the network at a lower cost. This is evident from the fierce competition between operators' network equipment and terminal tendering.
In addition, the relevant departments have promulgated the policy of co construction and sharing of telecommunications infrastructure, which is conducive to reducing investment in duplicated construction, but there are still many difficulties at the operational level.
Under the influence of the financial turmoil, the capital market is generally depressed and the enthusiasm for investment has been greatly reduced. The ability of operators to raise capital from the capital market will be tested.
Wang Xiaochu, chairman and chief executive of China Telecom, once said: "we need to adjust and optimize the financing plan in time when the financial crisis arises.
For example, our planned equity financing will slow down temporarily, and debt financing will make the company less risky.
Internal and external integration can solve risks. Research shows that in the past recession, the industry that can sustain strong growth and support the overall economy is the energy industry first, followed by the telecommunications industry; the third is the related engineering and technology industry.
The impact of the financial crisis on the telecommunications industry is not balanced. In general, it will have a greater impact on the economically developed areas, while the less developed areas will be less affected.
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications professor Song Junde believes that in the financial crisis, China's rural areas and two or three tier cities will probably not be affected and affected.
China's Telecom penetration rate is still potential, and the 3G is about to start on a large scale, so the domestic demand market has great potential to tap.
In terms of expanding consumer demand, rural areas have great potential for development.
From the perspective of consumption structure, rural residents develop and enjoy the rapid growth of sexual consumption expenditure.
In 2007, the expenditure level of rural residents' education, entertainment, health care, pportation and communications reached 306 yuan, 210 yuan and 328 yuan respectively, and the proportion of living expenses in the rural areas increased by 4.4, 4.4 and 9.8 percentage points respectively compared with 1980.
Hua Xin, chairman of the maple group, said: "in the case of credit financing difficulties, only through business innovation to increase production efficiency and reduce the investment cost of network construction can we achieve steady growth in profits."
At the same time, we need policy support from relevant departments to deal with this crisis.
For example, the state capital injection support policy, the 3G licensing policy and the telecommunications infrastructure co construction and sharing policy.
The "home appliances to the countryside" activities, which will be implemented in December, will directly subsidize the farmers' consumers in accordance with 13% of the sales price.
For operators, this is also a good opportunity to activate rural consumption and expand domestic demand.
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