2014 Demand For Viscose Staple Industry Is Coming.

< p > after the Spring Festival, affected by the replenishment stock and other factors, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > viscose /a > enterprise collective raise price.

According to the insiders, the price increase of viscose in the past two years has basically ended with rising operating rate and falling prices, but this year's supply and demand pattern has been reversed, and the industry is more sure to usher in the "new year".

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< p > < strong > operation rate is expected to exceed 90% < /strong > /p >

< p > according to the analysts of Anxin securities, the viscose industry experienced 12.8% and 13% increase in capacity in 2012 and 2013 after the release of the new production capacity in 2010 and 2011.

But in 2014, the industry's new capacity grew by only 260 thousand tons, with a growth rate of 6.7%.

The slowdown in capacity growth is conducive to changing the supply and demand pattern of the industry. It is estimated that the industry will start operating at above 95%.

In the context of rising capacity utilization and high position, the bargaining power of viscose enterprises will gradually strengthen.

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< p > for this calculation result, industry experts believe that the normal shutdown and maintenance is still needed, so the starting rate of 95% should not be reached, but 9 or less is not a big problem.

While supply growth is slowing down, downstream demand is more optimistic.

Affected by factors such as anti dumping of upstream dissolving pulp, the overall export demand declined in 2013, and this year, US cotton prices continue to rise, exports are expected to grow, and domestic demand is also improving.

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< p > the research center of the China card Research Center said that the global cotton stocks were basically digested except China, while the planting area of the new planting year in China and the United States must have declined. The magnitude of the decline depends on the US March forecast report, which has been reflected in the continuous rise of US cotton prices.

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< p > > Sanyou chemical (600409, stock bar) people also told us that the downstream of the viscose textile < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/business/" > clothing industry < /a > went to the end of inventory, began to fill the inventory stage, and yarn, non-woven fabrics and other downstream downstream production expansion is relatively fast, there is a certain supply gap in the viscose market this year is more clear.

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< p > < strong > demand peak season is coming, < /strong > /p >

< p > at present, textile manufacturers downstream of viscose have not completely resumed their work, and the whole industry is in the stage of resuming work. Therefore, it is hard to see the further price increase in the short term. But insiders pointed out that the demand season is coming, and the continued price increase of viscose is also worth looking forward to. The market situation is expected to get better and better, and it will be more optimistic before May.

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< p > it is understood that the stock of viscose industry is only 10 days, far below the normal level of 20 days, while the average market price is about 12 thousand and 900 yuan / ton, which is not large compared with the cost line of 12 thousand and 500 yuan / ton of first tier manufacturers.

The current operating rate of the industry is about 85%.

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< p > with the improvement of viscose market, the profit forecast of Australia and Nanjing Technology (002172, stock bar), Sanyou chemical industry, Nanjing chemical fiber (600889, stock bar) and other related companies is expected to improve.

Learned from Sanyou chemical industry, the company is optimistic about this year's Viscose market, compared with other companies, the company's capacity in the 20%-30% raw materials are not affected by pulp anti-dumping, with cost advantages.

In addition, the downstream demand for bamboo Dyer products is better, inventory is relatively low, and the 30 thousand ton line has been pformed and waiting for further expansion of future demand.

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< p > the price of dissolving pulp from the main raw material of viscose is expected to continue to decline in the future, which will further increase the profit margins of viscose.

Guotai Junan analyst believes that the high profit of foreign dissolving pulp industry attracts pulp manufacturers to pfer large quantities of dissolving pulp, which will be concentrated in the second half of 2013 to the first half of 2015. The price of dissolving pulp will continue to go down in the next two years.

Data show that in the past 2013-2015 years, 2 million 470 thousand tons of foreign dissolving pulp manufacturers have been newly built, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > upgrading > /a > or converted to production capacity, and three years of production capacity has increased by 35%.

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