The Pressure Of Domestic Economic Pressure Is The Key To Face The Structural Problems In The Economy.

< p > China's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Statistics Bureau < /a > February 14th released data show that in January, CPI rose 2.5%, up 1% compared to the same month, PPI dropped 1.6% compared to the same period last year, and continued to drop 23 months, down 0.1%.

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< p > * from the sub item data, the higher the weight of food prices, the 2.4% increase, which is mainly driven by the price of fresh fruits, aquatic products and dairy products, while the traditional main consumer products pork and eggs fell by 4.3% and 3.8% respectively.

This seems to reflect the escalation of food consumption in China, and people pay more attention to healthy eating, but their rise is not always caused by demand. There are large cost drivers, such as dairy products.

While the drop in pork and egg prices may be due to increased supply, but also reflects the downturn in consumption.

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< p > in addition, housing prices rose by 2.8% over the same period last year, which is obviously underestimated by comparison with people's intuitive sense.

The price of service industry is still rising, mainly due to cost push, and labor and rental prices are rising rigidly. But considering that demand has not become prosperous, this will further reduce the profit of service industry.

Last year, the volume of e-commerce pactions in China exceeded 10 trillion yuan, which greatly slowed down the rising speed of some commodities, such as clothing, shoes and hats and electronic communications appliances, because rent and salesman wages had gone up too much.

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< p > January < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp" > PPI < /a > 1.6% down for the same period, down 23 months, the ring ratio was the first time negative in six months, and dropped 0.1%. If China's PMI (whether in the mining or HSBC PMI) was weakened in January, it shows that the downward pressure on China's economy is very great.

Last year, growth in real estate and government infrastructure supported growth, but this year there could be a change.

Last year, there were certain particularities, such as the successful convening of the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, and the macroeconomic policy to a certain extent focused on the goal of "ensuring growth".

This year, due to the pformation task, government projects and real estate investment may decrease significantly. Although there are affordable housing projects, shantytowns and farmland water conservancy and pportation construction, it is not enough to hedge the decline of investment.

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< p > although China's a href= "http://fz.sjfzxm.com/" > CPI < /a > mild and PPI continue to be negative, this does not constitute an impact on monetary policy, such as interest rate cuts.

From the external environment, the withdrawal of QE from the US is bound to push up interest rates in emerging market countries, and as long as property prices continue to rise, excess capacity can not be eliminated and local governments continue to maintain growth, the financing cost of the market will continue to remain high.

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< p > it is difficult to draw a trend judgement from a month's data. For a large economy like China, the adjustment period will be a long process, and the relevant departments will always adopt fiscal policy and industrial policy to maintain the survival of various capacity and economic growth, so statistical data is only a reference.

The real problem is the degree of structural imbalance and the structural imbalance in the economy, which is the ultimate solution to various problems.

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< p > a fact is that structural problems in the economy have not yet constituted a "crisis", but have entered a stage of "dilemma".

Although China has not really implemented the policy of deleveraging, some key data have begun to decline.

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< p > China needs great patience and courage to guide a href= "http://pop.sjfzxm.com/popimg/fz/index.aspx" > soft landing of economy > /a > in the process of deleveraging, eliminate excess capacity, absorb too many bad debts, and eventually rebuild a more healthy economic structure and development mode. Of course, this involves a comprehensive reform, that is, the tasks and objectives of the third plenary session.

There is no need to fear "bad data" and to passively invest more resources for stability and anticipation. This is a black hole.

Instead, we should actively face various problems and solve problems.

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