Small And Medium Enterprises Encounter Survival Dilemma: Solving "Three Wastes And Two High"

"Three wastes and two high" bring small and medium enterprise The impact is obvious. There are even analysts who believe that the dilemma that this bureau will bring to SMEs will exceed the financial crisis of 2008.

Recently, our reporter went to various places to conduct in-depth reports for a week to find out the status quo and get a solution. Today, we have invited several experts and scholars to make further analysis and anatomy on the formation, influence and Countermeasures of the "three wastes and two high" problems, which is a summary of this series of reports.

"Three famine and two high" situation is difficult to reverse in the short term

Shanghai Securities Daily: since the beginning of this year, SMEs have been faced with "three famine and two high". Is this a cumulative outbreak of chronic illness? phenomenon On the current economic situation, how long do you think this situation will last?

Wang Jian: the current "three shortage and two high" problems faced by SMEs are not the outbreak of long-term cumulative factors. Since reform and opening up, the direction of China's market economy reform has always been clear. In recent years, private enterprises have become the leading force of national economic growth. Therefore, from the policy level, the state does not discriminate against private enterprises. Therefore, I think there are no institutional reasons for the difficulties faced by SMEs at present.

I think there are two reasons for the "three wastes and two high": on the one hand, the reform of our economic system is still necessary, for example, the current bank credit is too heavily dependent on state-owned enterprises and government projects, while the non-state-owned enterprises are more cautious. On the other hand, in general, SMEs are more vulnerable to environmental problems in crisis, and state-owned enterprises and large enterprises with government backgrounds are not easy to fall out. Therefore, compared with large enterprises, SMEs are more difficult to obtain financial support from banks.

As for how long the "three barren two heights" will last, I do not think it will be over soon from the macroeconomic trend. I have expounded on many occasions that China's economic growth will continue for three consecutive years starting this year. Therefore, this situation will not be very optimistic in the next two or three years.

But now there seems to be some. Turning point Since the first increase in interest rates since last year, it was "two rates". After April this year, it was more inclined to "only move one rate", that is, raising the deposit reserve ratio and not using the tool of raising interest rates easily. If we continue to tighten up, we may have big problems in the future. In my view, the three quarter of this year will be the observation period of macro policy, and the tension of "three shortage and two high" in the second half of this year may be improved.

Xu Ce: the phenomenon of "three wastes and two high" is a general description of the production and development environment faced by small and medium-sized enterprises this year. It should be said that this is not only a phased connotation, but also an outbreak of contradictions accumulated over a long period of time depending on the traditional development mode.

Taking "labor shortage" as an example, with the change of population structure in China, the demographic dividend will gradually weaken, which will inevitably lead to the shortage of labor supply, which is the characteristic of our current economic development. The shortage of coal and electricity supply, which is highlighted by the "electricity shortage", is also a reflection of the objective fact of heavy industrialization in China and the excessive consumption of energy products. However, further, SMEs in China rely on labor input and resources and energy consumption for a long time to achieve their own survival and development. This will inevitably bring about marginal revenue reduction and marginal cost increase of all production factors. This also profoundly reflects that in the new period of economic development, the traditional mode of development is no longer applicable. In addition, "three shortage and two high" also reflected some problems in the environment of China's economic operation from the institutional level.

"Money shortage" is caused by tight monetary policy on the surface, but the underlying reason is that China's financial efficiency is relatively low, and its financial services system for small and medium enterprises and even micro enterprises is not perfect. "Electricity shortage" reflects a long way to go in the reform of China's resource price system, which is one of the key factors that restrict the transformation of economic development for a long time. "Labor shortage" reflects the profound contradiction between the development of the labor market needs to be perfected, the vocational education training system to be further improved, and the employment system and the industrial structure not match. "The high tax burden" actually reflects the government's attitude in the process of national income distribution. More government segmentation reflects problems in the transformation of government functions in China. Therefore, "three famine and two high" is not only a phased phenomenon, but also a long-term contradiction. The continuity of this situation needs to be further adjusted by the current macroeconomic regulation and control policy. The real and complete transformation of this situation needs a series of reform and improvement of the system and mechanism.

Sun Huaibin: since this year, coal, electricity, oil, transportation and so on. cost Rising profits, coupled with tighter monetary tightening and continued appreciation of the renminbi, are squeezing margins of small and medium-sized textile enterprises, which are mainly export oriented, and are at the margins of profit and loss. According to statistics of the textile industry association, the financial cost of the textile industry increased by 40.2% in the first quarter, much higher than that of the main business revenue by 7.6 percentage points.

At present, the problem of "three wastes and two high" faced by small and medium-sized enterprises should be examined in a macro environment. Unlike in 2008, the export market pressure was caused by the shrinking international market demand caused by the subprime mortgage crisis. Now it is the return of the country's expansionary policy to normalcy when dealing with the financial crisis. At present, this policy has increased the financing difficulty of SMEs to a certain extent. As for how long this situation will last, it depends on the macroeconomic trend and the effect of national regulation.

Yuan Gangming: there is a view that "electricity shortage" and "labor shortage" are the manifestations of overheated economy. We believe that we should adopt tight policies and measures, but this will lead to "shortage of money", and capital contraction will cause economic downturn, so the first two "shortage" and "shortage of money" are contradictory.

But I do not think there is "electricity shortage" and "labor shortage". Because the growth rate of electricity is very low now, only about 11% in April, so there is no excessive demand for electricity, resulting in insufficient supply, but higher coal prices, and the loss of power companies unwilling to generate electricity. The so-called high price of coal is also not the overheating of the economy, which has led to excessive demand for coal, but the promotion of domestic energy prices and the promotion of domestic coal prices. At present, the electricity reform is still unreasonable, and the power companies also hope that the state will intervene to supply the coal with the planned price.

I also don't think there is "labor shortage". "Labor shortage" means that a large number of labor force is needed for a large number of enterprises. But in fact, some private enterprises used to produce low wages and pay little attention to the welfare of workers. When workers asked for higher treatment, they were unwilling to bear higher costs, resulting in "labor shortage".

But I think the shortage of funds is indeed universal, and the economic growth rate of China's economy has already been severely reduced.

However, with "three wastes and two high" generalizations, the current management environment of private enterprises is also very appropriate. Because the supply of electricity, capital, employment and other factors is indeed scarce, it also shows that there are serious structural problems in the economic operation. This is a deep-seated and long-standing problem and has been more prominent in private enterprises. Many large enterprises benefit in the middle, for example, they never feel the shortage of funds, even if there is "electricity shortage", they will not be restricted by power sluice.

"Three famine and two high" will drag the economy back

Shanghai Securities Journal: the "three shortage and two high" situation will be a great influence on China's macro economy. Economics What are the impacts? For example, what will be the impact on CPI, GDP and other economic indicators?

Yuan Gangming: the M2 growth rate in May has dropped to 15.1%. The bitter lesson of 2008 is that when the growth rate of loans or currencies falls below 15%, the economy will decline sharply and enterprises will collapse in large areas. Now it is the time again.

Now that deflation has caused economic growth to slide too much, if it is not reversed, it will continue to grow in the second half of the year, so that the Chinese economy will repeat itself in the second half of 2008. The economic downturn in 2008 was not only caused by the international financial crisis. I think there were also reasons for the over tightening in July and 6, but we did not reflect on this lesson very well.

Xu Ce: the current situation will affect the macro economy from several aspects: first, it will affect economic growth. Small and medium-sized enterprises account for more than 99% of the total production of all enterprises. The problems existing in SMEs are one of the most important problems at the Chinese enterprise level. Small and medium-sized enterprises in the "three shortage and two high" environment, the profits are constantly diluted, and even production can not continue, which will inevitably slow down the economic growth. Second, it will affect the continuity of policies. The current situation has led to weak economic growth, which is likely to lead to hesitation in the withdrawal of stimulus policies, which will lead to structural adjustment and transformation. Third, the impact on prices. The combination of "three wastes and two high" reflects the operation of the whole economic system in a relatively high cost environment. The deep-seated reason from the government's point of view is that the system reform is not in place. The main reason for exploring from the perspective of enterprises is that the enterprises lack the ability to innovate.

Wang Jian: compared with the impact of "three wastes and two high" on economic growth, what I am most worried about is the employment problem, because small and medium-sized enterprises hold most of the employment in our country. If they fail to support the collapse, employment and livelihood will become a problem, which will affect residents' income and social stability.

Enterprises should adjust their own development strategies

Shanghai Securities Daily: it is understood that behind the "three famine and two high", there are also reasons for the blind expansion of its own business. For the enterprise itself, how should we adjust our development strategy in the future so as not to encounter such shocks in the future? In addition, can we also understand the current situation from a positive perspective? That is, this situation may boost industrial upgrading and economic restructuring, and how should enterprises grasp this opportunity in the predicament?

Sun Huaibin: macro policy from expansion to normality will inevitably bring difficulties to small and medium-sized enterprises. For small and medium-sized enterprises, the macro environment is something we can not control. Therefore, we should not blindly blame and complain, but look for countermeasures from a positive perspective. We must prepare for "tight days".

Because the textile industry is a traditional industry, the income and the labor environment are difficult to meet the needs of the new type of migrant workers, which leads to difficulties in recruitment and difficulty in the textile industry, which forces us to actively transform, improve production efficiency and automation, thereby reducing dependence on employment. To some extent, the current "three shortage and two high" dilemma is also a driving force for industrial transformation and upgrading.

Of course, while appealed to the state to attach importance to the management environment of small and medium-sized enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises also need to learn to save themselves and walk on two legs. Small and medium-sized enterprises should make some adjustments in financing structure and financing mode. For example, small and medium-sized enterprises can establish mutual funds, thereby reducing the proportion of financing from banks.

Xu Ce: there are also factors contributing to the blind expansion of some enterprises, which results in the "three shortage and two high". This is mainly due to the fact that the traditional mode of economic development is difficult to change under the condition that the resource price system has not changed. At the same time, the interest rate of the central bank is still relatively low, and in fact, it has kept the loose situation of the price type monetary policy and provided conditions for the blind expansion of enterprises.

In fact, from the perspective of enterprises themselves, in the face of the current economic environment, we should make good use of the forced mechanism, improve their own innovation ability, constantly adjust the industrial structure, promote upgrading, and enhance the driving force for sustainable development in the future.

Wang Jian: for the current difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises, the government should understand what things should be done and what matters need to be solved by the market. To a certain extent, the failure of enterprises is the embodiment of market elimination mechanism.

The difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises are actually a good thing for enterprises. Good enterprises are generated in the market process of survival of the fittest. Therefore, we should not place too much emphasis on the difficulties of SMEs. {page_break}

Calling for deep system reform

Shanghai Securities Daily: small and medium-sized enterprises have solved a large number of employment. Under the background of "three famine and two high", some enterprises are already overburdened and are on the brink of bankruptcy. How do you think we should solve the problem of "three wastes and two heights" fundamentally?

Xu Ce: how to deal with the crisis faced by small and medium-sized enterprises, we must first understand the crisis correctly. The crisis has both policy and institutional reasons, as well as the reasons for the business itself. According to the macroeconomic regulation and control in the "12th Five-Year" period, adjusting the economic structure is the fundamental criterion to test the effect of macroeconomic regulation and control. The adjustment of economic structure will inevitably cost some backward and inefficient enterprises to withdraw from the market. Therefore, in policy, we still need to stick to the process of withdrawal of stimulus policies, pay more attention to the regulation of price based monetary policy, avoid the regulation of administrative monetary policy, and strive to maintain market competition and the fairness of resource acquisition.

In the system, we should further improve the financial system, improve the financial services system for small and medium-sized enterprises, further promote the reform of the resource price system, rationalize the price mechanism, create a system environment for changing the mode of development of services, improve vocational training system, accumulate more human capital, and accelerate the development of a high-quality industrial army that matches China's manufacturing power. Only the deep level system reform can fundamentally change the situation of "three wastes and two heights".

Wang Jian: Generally speaking, monetary policy will be effective in half a year. We started tightening monetary policy since October last year, but it has not yet been effective. For example, the CPI price in May has reached a new high. This shows that deflation is of little significance in restraining inflation, but it is very effective for "pressure growth", which continues to worsen the operating environment of SMEs in a certain extent.

As for how to solve the small and medium-sized enterprises' operational difficulties, I have been calling for "fiscal policy to go before the stage, and monetary policy should go back", such as the use of "fiscal transfer payment" to ensure that the living standard of the middle and low income groups will not be lost in inflation.

Sun Huaibin: for small and medium-sized enterprises represented by textile enterprises, the diversified structure of financing has not really formed, and the current source of funds mainly depends on banks. Therefore, the central bank will raise the deposit reserve ratio, which will inhibit the impulse of commercial banks' loans, which will naturally increase the difficulty for SMEs to obtain funds from banks.

It is hoped that the relevant departments of the government will pay close attention to the plight of the current small and medium-sized enterprises, appropriately reduce or at least stop raising the reserve ratio, and diversify the means of policy control so as to increase the possibility of obtaining loans from banks for SMEs.

Yuan Gangming: I think the biggest problem of the current macroeconomic policy is to control the rapid development of small and medium-sized enterprises by means of monetary tightening. Because SMEs are generally regarded as low level, high pollution and high energy consumption, the result of structural adjustment is that a number of enterprises are eliminated through the current tightening policy. I believe that it is with this view that we advocate tightening monetary policy.

However, the current "money shortage" shows that tightening policies have impeded the normal development of SMEs, and the difficulties caused by tight funds are absolutely not the case, but the existence of large areas. So I think the current tightening of funds has gone too far. And we have to think clearly that relying on tight money can not bring prices down very quickly, but rather push the small and medium-sized enterprises to the brink of life and death.

Therefore, I think we need to change our concept. At present, we should pay more attention to small and medium-sized enterprises, and take the survival condition of small and medium-sized enterprises as one of the important standards of macro policy control.