Analysis: The Impact Of The Japanese Earthquake On China'S Garment Industry

Japan is one of the main export places of China's textile and clothing products. The earthquake will have a temporary impact on exports and will have a limited impact on exports for the whole year.

Exports to Japan account for about 10% of global exports.

In the 10 year, affected by the stagnation of Japan's economic growth, the industry's export repair to the market was more difficult. Until October, the export growth rate showed a positive growth trend, significantly slower than Europe and the United States.

But the great earthquake that broke out in March 11th has undoubtedly made Japan's economy grow worse.

From the industry point of view, we think earthquakes and

Exports declined in February, and the follow-up does not exclude the monthly impact of the earthquake on exports. The annual export growth rate is expected to be 10%-15%.

In February, exports of textiles, clothing and textiles and clothing decreased by 11.8%, 20.5% and 17.4% respectively, mainly due to the factors of export before the Spring Festival. The cumulative export growth in 1-2 months was 20.84%, 9.47% and 13.56% respectively. The future export may be affected by high cotton prices, while the monthly impact of the earthquake is not excluded. The whole industry's export growth is expected to be 10-15% in the whole year.

On the impact of some listed companies: according to the situation learned from the listed companies, Huafu color spinning, Shandong Ruyi and xunxing shares (YKK production base is mainly distributed in Dalian, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Southeast Asia, etc., thus producing unaffected) export enterprises, because its main export markets are mostly concentrated in Europe and the United States and so on, so it has not been directly affected.

Japan's exports account for a relatively high proportion, including Lu Tai and Da Yang's creation. The proportion of exports to Japan accounts for about 10% and 1/3 of the two companies, respectively. We believe that the existing orders may be delayed by the traffic jam, but they have little impact on the annual orders.

Investment advice: for the manufacturing industry, we suggest that we should focus on the fundamentals and valuations of the company. Lu Tai can focus on the stimulation of the market according to the monthly export data. In the medium term, we can focus on the better growth of Weixing and Huafu.